EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor August 2024Released September 4, 2024 |
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Conditions index −0.15 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.00 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 3/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 2/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released September 4, 2024, with information collected on or before August 26, 2024. | | ■ | Three districts reported slight growth while nine reported flat or declining activity, up from five. | | ■ | Consumer spending ticked down in most districts; manufacturing declined in most districts; employment steady with rare layoffs. | | ■ | Residential and commercial real estate mixed with softer home sales; contacts expected stable or somewhat better activity ahead. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects | Real Estate
XLRE
▲ Turning up | +0.15 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.00 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▼ Weakening | −0.53 |
| Materials
XLB
▶ Steady | −0.18 |
| Industrials
XLI
▶ Steady | −0.18 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.21 | Leaning Favorable | +0.57 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.19 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.15 | Neutral | −0.41 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.17 | | 3 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 4 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 5 | Information Technology
XLK | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.04 | | 6 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.03 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.13 | | 7 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.04 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.15 | | 8 | Financials
XLF | | −0.12 | Neutral | −0.31 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.12 | | 9 | Industrials
XLI | | −0.18 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.45 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.20 | | 10 | Materials
XLB | | −0.18 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.46 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.27 | | 11 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.53 | Unfavorable | −0.64 | −0.50 | ▼ −0.67 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | −0.25 |
Three districts grew slightly; nine flat or declining. | Employment steady overall; firms more selective; layoffs rare. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.50 |
Prices increased modestly; cost pressures generally easing. | Loan demand flat; delinquencies rising in places. | Contacts expected activity to remain stable or improve somewhat. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | −1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | −1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 | · | +1 | −1 | −1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | · | · | +1 | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | · | +1 | −1 | −1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | −2 | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Consumer Discretionary −1 broad−based Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas, San Francisco Consumer spending declined; big-ticket purchases delayed. Why it matters: Drags Discretionary. | Consumer Discretionary +1 Kansas City Consumer spending expanded at a moderate pace. Why it matters: Partial offset. | Industrials −1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing activity declined in most districts. Why it matters: Industrials negative. | Industrials +1 Philadelphia Manufacturing quickened to a moderate pace. Why it matters: Partial offset. | Materials −2 Cleveland Metals demand at historically low levels. Why it matters: Strongest Materials negative. | Real Estate +1 Boston, New York, Kansas City Single-family sales strongest in two years. Why it matters: Lifts Real Estate. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Increased modestly. |
| New York Flat Outlook ▶ Remained flat. |
| Philadelphia Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Declined slightly. |
| Cleveland Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Declined slightly. |
| Richmond Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Contracted slightly. |
| Atlanta Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Declined slightly. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Increased slightly. |
| St. Louis Flat Outlook ▼ Unchanged. |
| Minneapolis Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Fell slightly. |
| Kansas City Flat Outlook ▲ Remained stable. |
| Dallas Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Expanded modestly. |
| San Francisco Flat Outlook ▶ Remained stable. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Consumer Discretionary — seven -1 reads push Discretionary to its weakest level since late 2023.
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| | Materials — Cleveland -2 metals read drives Materials negative.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |