EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor February 2015Released March 4, 2015 |
| |
Conditions index +0.25 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.20 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 12/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 6/11 sectors improving |
|
|
This release in brief The read | ■ | Released March 4, 2015, with information collected on or before February 23, 2015. | | ■ | Activity expanded across most regions; six districts moderate, Philadelphia and Cleveland modest, Kansas City slight, Richmond slowed; Boston upbeat despite severe weather. | | ■ | Consumer spending and tourism rose; manufacturing gained at varying rates; home sales increased in most districts and commercial real estate stable to improving. | | ■ | Banking improved; oil and gas drilling declined sharply with layoffs in energy districts; payrolls stable to growing and prices flat to slightly higher. |
|
Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | +0.60 |
| Financials
XLF
▲ Turning up | +0.54 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▶ Steady | +0.45 |
|
|
| Weakest prospects | Materials
XLB
▼ Turning down | −0.27 |
| Communication Services
XLC
▶ Steady | −0.06 |
|
|
|
|
All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
|---|
| 1 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.60 | Favorable | +0.89 | +0.76 | ▶ +0.09 | | 2 | Financials
XLF | | +0.54 | Favorable | +1.10 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.53 | | 3 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.45 | Leaning Favorable | +0.66 | +0.58 | ▶ +0.04 | | 4 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.42 | Leaning Favorable | +0.58 | +0.73 | ▶ −0.27 | | 5 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.36 | Leaning Favorable | +0.55 | +0.61 | ▼ −0.36 | | 6 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.12 | Neutral | +0.32 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.11 | | 7 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.12 | Neutral | +0.22 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.27 | | 8 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.21 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.06 | | 9 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.06 | Neutral | −0.15 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.20 | | 10 | Materials
XLB | | −0.27 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.42 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.48 | | 11 | Energy
XLE | | −0.92 | Unfavorable | −1.23 | −0.96 | ▶ −0.72 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Expansion across most regions; six districts moderate. | Payrolls stable or expanded across a broad range of sectors. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Flat to slightly increasing prices; lower fuel surcharges. | Loan demand increased in all reporting districts except KC. | Retailers and manufacturers generally optimistic. |
|
Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
|---|
| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | +1 | −1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | +2 | +1 | +1 | · | +2 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | +1 | −1 | −2 | −2 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | −1 | −1 | · | · | +1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
|
Top highlights What moved the scores Energy −2 Dallas, Kansas City Oilfield services demand declined sharply; rigs fell sharply. Why it matters: Largest Energy weights deeply negative. | Energy −1 Cleveland, Atlanta, Minneapolis Drilling declined; layoffs in oil and gas. Why it matters: Broadens Energy weakness. | Financials +2 New York, Atlanta Loan demand strong. Why it matters: NY carries largest Financials weight. | Consumer Discretionary +1 broad−based Broad-based Consumer spending rose; auto sales up; tourism improved. Why it matters: Discretionary positive. | Industrials +1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing generally posted gains. Why it matters: Industrials positive. | Industrials −1 Richmond Manufacturing stalled; shipments and orders flattened. Why it matters: Industrials offset. |
|
Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Fairly upbeat. |
| New York Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expand at a moderate pace. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grow at a modest pace. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace. |
| Richmond Growing +0.2 Outlook ▲ Grew at a slower pace. |
| Atlanta Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grow at a moderate pace. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth remained moderate. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Increased at a moderate pace. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew at a moderate pace. |
| Kansas City Growing +0.2 Outlook ▲ Grow slightly. |
| Dallas Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Roughly the same pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Improve moderately. |
|
|
Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Energy — Dallas and Kansas City (-2) dominate weighted Energy, deepening the negative reading.
|
| | Financials — New York (+2) lifts the weighted score above the unweighted average.
|
|
|
How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |