| Sector prospects from the Fed’s regional reports | |
EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor July 2002Released July 31, 2002 | | | Conditions index +0.09 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index −0.00 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 7/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 2/11 sectors improving |
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| This release in brief The read | ■ | Released July 31, 2002, with information collected before July 23. | | ■ | The economy expanded modestly with uneven performance; Boston, New York, Atlanta and Dallas noted some tapering off, while Cleveland and St. Louis improved. | | ■ | Retail sales were mixed and autos were weak in June before July incentives; manufacturing improved modestly on balance, led by autos and semiconductors. | | ■ | Housing remained robust nearly everywhere, with some buyers turning to real estate as stocks fell, while commercial real estate stayed weak. | | ■ | Contacts in several districts worried that falling equity markets and accounting scandals would weigh on spending; prices were flat apart from steel, plastics, lumber and insurance. |
| Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Information Technology
XLK
▶ Steady | +0.24 |
| Materials
XLB
▼ Turning down | +0.20 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | +0.01 |
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| Weakest prospects Communication Services
XLC
▶ Steady | −0.38 |
| Financials
XLF
▶ Steady | −0.13 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | −0.10 |
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| All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.24 | Leaning Favorable | +0.57 | +0.09 | ▶ +0.07 | | 2 | Materials
XLB | | +0.20 | Leaning Favorable | +0.44 | n/a | ▼ −0.17 | | 3 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.06 | | 4 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.12 | n/a | ▶ −0.11 | | 5 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.00 | | 6 | Industrials
XLI | | −0.02 | Neutral | +0.23 | +0.04 | ▶ −0.21 | | 7 | Real Estate
XLRE | | −0.05 | Neutral | −0.10 | +0.27 | ▶ −0.11 | | 8 | Energy
XLE | | −0.09 | Neutral | +0.10 | n/a | ▼ −0.17 | | 9 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.10 | Neutral | +0.02 | −0.04 | ▶ −0.20 | | 10 | Financials
XLF | | −0.13 | Neutral | +0.05 | −0.38 | ▶ −0.23 | | 11 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.38 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.40 | n/a | ▶ −0.23 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. | National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.25 |
Economy expanded modestly with uneven performance; four districts noted tapering, two improved, the rest moderate growth. | Labor markets slack but relatively stable; New York and Kansas City softened, Richmond improved modestly. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Finished goods and services prices flat; raw materials stable except steel, plastics and lumber; non-wage benefit costs escalating. | Strong mortgage and refinancing demand, steady consumer, weak but sometimes improving business loans; credit quality good. | General sense of optimism about the near term, but many contacts concerned that declining equity markets and accounting scandals will affect the real economy. |
| Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | +1 | · | −1 | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | −1 | −1 | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | −1 | · | · | · | +1 | −1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | | IndustrialsXLI | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | −2 | · | | MaterialsXLB | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
| Top highlights What moved the scores Information Technology +1 San Francisco, Dallas Semiconductor industry 'clearly in recovery'; orders, sales and capacity utilization rising. Why it matters: The two largest IT districts positive lift IT near the top. | Materials +1 Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Richmond Rolled steel mills at or near full capacity; steel sales picked up strongest thanks to tariff protection. Why it matters: Broad positive readings keep Materials among the leading sectors. | Real Estate −2 Dallas Office rents in previously hot areas of Dallas dropped 50 percent from a year ago. Why it matters: Dallas's -2 cancels the housing boom elsewhere in the weighted Real Estate score. | Consumer Discretionary −1 Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas Retail sales flat or down; tourists spending less; casual dining sales down from a year ago. Why it matters: Four negative readings, including large districts, pull Discretionary toward zero. | Industrials +1 Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis Trucking and shipping strong monthly growth; manufacturers in several industries plan to expand. Why it matters: Positive mid-weight readings keep Industrials modestly positive. | Financials −1 Philadelphia, Dallas Investors switching out of equities into money markets; M&A continued strong negative trend. Why it matters: Stock market losses start to show up in Financials conditions. |
| Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Flat Outlook ▼ Economy going through a 'bumpy' period. |
| New York Flat Outlook ▲ Growth appears to have eased off. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Business activity edged up in July. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Some improvement from the last report. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Continued to expand at a modest pace. |
| Atlanta Flat Outlook ▲ Economic activity remained sluggish. |
| Chicago Flat Pace of recovery remained slow. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Economic activity continues to recover. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Economy appears to have expanded modestly. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Maintained an upward trend. |
| Dallas Flat Outlook ▼ Activity grew very slowly; caution percolating. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Activity continued to expand at a moderate pace. |
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| Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Real Estate — Dallas -2 offsets +1 in Boston and Chicago, so the weighted score is near zero despite housing strength nearly everywhere.
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| | Financials — Equity market losses hit investment firm revenues (Philadelphia) and M&A activity (Dallas) even as mortgage lending boomed.
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| | Communication Services & Utilities — Thin coverage; only San Francisco telecom weakness scored.
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| | District validation: Atlanta and Dallas overall 0 reflect sluggish growth; most district averages close to their overall scores.
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| How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |
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