EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2000Released May 3, 2000 · Data through April 24 |
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Conditions index +0.47 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index −0.09 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 11/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 6/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | The economy kept expanding, with most districts reporting moderate to strong growth and only Richmond and Chicago noting slight slowing. | | ■ | Consumer spending was strong and in line with expectations, with home-related goods and light vehicles selling well; apparel was slow and a late Easter muddied comparisons. | | ■ | Manufacturing was strong but mixed: autos, machine tools, steel and high-tech hardware showed significant strength, while farm equipment, heavy trucks and aerospace stayed soft. | | ■ | Commercial construction stayed robust, but residential demand softened in Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City even as New York activity was 'frenzied'. | | ■ | Wage pressures intensified more often and input prices rose in nearly every region, with fuel surcharges spreading, though few increases reached retail prices. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Energy
XLE
▲ Turning up | +0.45 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | +0.41 |
| Information Technology
XLK
▶ Steady | +0.40 |
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| Weakest prospects Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | −0.14 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.06 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▶ Steady | +0.08 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.45 | Leaning Favorable | +0.51 | +0.41 | ▲ +0.40 | | 2 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.41 | Leaning Favorable | +0.90 | +0.42 | ▶ −0.12 | | 3 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.40 | Leaning Favorable | +0.83 | n/a | ▶ +0.09 | | 4 | Materials
XLB | | +0.40 | Leaning Favorable | +0.62 | n/a | ▼ −0.26 | | 5 | Financials
XLF | | +0.29 | Leaning Favorable | +0.49 | −0.50 | ▲ +0.34 | | 6 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.28 | Leaning Favorable | +0.29 | n/a | ▶ +0.03 | | 7 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.25 | Leaning Favorable | +0.40 | n/a | ▶ +0.04 | | 8 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.22 | Leaning Favorable | +0.66 | −0.29 | ▶ −0.10 | | 9 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.53 | −0.50 | ▶ −0.09 | | 10 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.06 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.09 | | 11 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.14 | Neutral | −0.08 | n/a | ▶ −0.12 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +1.25 |
Most districts reported moderate to strong growth; only Richmond and Chicago noted slight slowing, Kansas City held steady and Dallas, New York and Minneapolis stayed brisk. | Worker shortages in every district hampered growth, with more frequent reports of intensifying wage pressures and rising health care costs; San Francisco cited larger wage increases than in the recent past. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +1.00 |
Input prices rose in nearly every region, especially petroleum-related inputs, steel and paper, with fuel surcharges widespread; Philadelphia, Minneapolis and Kansas City saw more retail price increases. | C&I demand high in 11 districts, but mortgage lending flat to down, New York kept tightening and rate increases delayed some commercial projects in Atlanta and Chicago. | Philadelphia contacts expect growth to ease and manufacturers trimmed forecasts; equity volatility altered some expectations, though Atlanta and Kansas City retailers remained optimistic. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +2 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +2 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | · | +2 | · | +1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +2 | · | −1 | +1 | −1 | · | · | +2 | · | · | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | +2 | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | · | +1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Information Technology +2 Dallas High-tech orders accelerated; sales to telecom and semiconductor firms 'booming'. Why it matters: Dallas is a top-three IT district; a +2 lifts the weighted score substantially. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco Increased foreign demand boosted high-tech sales volumes. Why it matters: San Francisco is about 47% of IT; an eleventh straight +1. | Energy +1 Dallas Domestic drilling up 34 rigs in two weeks, including the first oil-directed gains since fall. Why it matters: Dallas carries the largest Energy weight; flipping from -1 to +1 is the largest swing this release. | Information Technology +2 Boston Suppliers to the semiconductor industry report 'extremely strong' growth. Why it matters: A second +2 broadens IT strength. | Real Estate +2 New York Manhattan co-op and condo prices up more than 20%; demand 'frenzied'. Why it matters: New York carries large Real Estate weight. | Consumer Discretionary +2 Minneapolis, Richmond Retail spending 'vigorous'; Easter resort bookings much stronger. Why it matters: Two +2s offset flat sales in New York and Kansas City. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Business contacts remain upbeat. |
| New York Growing +2.0 Growth shows few signs of slowing. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Expanded moderately in March and April. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Growth is moderately strong. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Vibrant but expanding slightly slower. |
| Atlanta Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded moderately in early spring. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Growth may have slowed slightly. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Continues to grow at a moderate pace. |
| Minneapolis Growing +2.0 Continues at a robust pace. |
| Kansas City Flat Outlook ▲ Economy held steady. |
| Dallas Growing +2.0 Outlook ▶ Continued to expand at a brisk pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +2.0 Continued strong performance. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Information Technology — two +2s in Boston and Dallas plus San Francisco's +1 make IT the strongest weighted reading since 1997.
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| | Energy — Dallas returns to +1 as drilling resumes, lifting weighted Energy back above neutral.
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| | Real Estate — coastal strength (New York, Minneapolis +2) contrasts with interior slowing (Cleveland, Atlanta -1).
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| | Financials — no negative district reads for the first time since mid-1999, though New York stays at 0.
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| | Utilities — only Richmond's weather-driven -1; CONSUMER STAPLES has no directional coverage.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |