EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2002Released April 24, 2002 |
| |
Conditions index +0.16 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.32 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 9/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 8/11 sectors improving |
|
|
This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 24, 2002, with information collected before April 16. | | ■ | Almost all districts reported signs of improvement or actual increases in activity; only Boston described activity as mixed, and Kansas City and Dallas remain weak despite improving signs. | | ■ | All districts reported stable or improved manufacturing, with steel, auto parts, building materials and furniture strongest, though capital spending plans remain limited. | | ■ | Residential real estate stayed robust while commercial markets were weak, especially in San Francisco, Dallas and Atlanta; tourism kept improving. | | ■ | Labor markets remained slack and retail prices flat, but steel producers sharply raised prices and fuel costs climbed. |
|
Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Financials
XLF
▲ Turning up | +0.45 |
| Materials
XLB
▲ Improving | +0.42 |
| Information Technology
XLK
▶ Steady | +0.37 |
|
|
| Weakest prospects Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.10 |
| Communication Services
XLC
▼ Turning down | −0.09 |
| Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | −0.00 |
|
|
|
|
All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
|---|
| 1 | Financials
XLF | | +0.45 | Leaning Favorable | +0.41 | +0.28 | ▲ +0.66 | | 2 | Materials
XLB | | +0.42 | Leaning Favorable | +0.38 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.55 | | 3 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.37 | Leaning Favorable | +0.51 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.24 | | 4 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.37 | Leaning Favorable | +0.49 | +0.17 | ▲ +1.06 | | 5 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.23 | Leaning Favorable | +0.23 | +0.18 | ▶ +0.47 | | 6 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.21 | Leaning Favorable | +0.31 | n/a | ▶ +0.18 | | 7 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.16 | Leaning Favorable | +0.06 | +0.43 | ▲ +0.44 | | 8 | Energy
XLE | | +0.03 | Neutral | −0.55 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.47 | | 9 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.00 | | 10 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.09 | Neutral | +0.05 | n/a | ▼ −0.15 | | 11 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.10 | Neutral | −0.11 | +0.50 | ▶ −0.11 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Almost all districts report improvement or increases; only Boston mixed, and Cleveland notes the pace of improvement slowed. | Labor markets remained slack; modest firming in New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta and St. Louis, and layoffs slowing. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Retail prices generally flat, but steel producers sharply boosted prices and fuel and petroleum-based input costs rose. | Loan demand little changed or up modestly; refinancing down from last year's highs; standards mostly unchanged outside New York. | Manufacturers generally optimistic, New York purchasing managers' expectations highest since mid-2000; retailers positive and summer travel expectations high. |
|
Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
|---|
| Information TechnologyXLK | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | −1 | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | −1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | −2 | · | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
|
Top highlights What moved the scores Industrials +1 broad−based Seven districts Manufacturing activity stabilizing or improving in all districts; St. Louis plants hiring back laid-off workers. Why it matters: Broad-based +1 readings turn Industrials positive for the first time since 2000. | Materials +1 Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis Steel production up significantly; spot prices up roughly 25 percent since December. Why it matters: Heavy-weight steel districts positive lift Materials to the top tier. | Real Estate −2 Dallas Effective office rents down 40 percent or more; opening bids include 12 months free rent. Why it matters: Dallas carries meaningful Real Estate weight; the -2 offsets strong housing elsewhere. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco Improved demand and inventory balance boosted semiconductor capacity utilization. Why it matters: San Francisco carries the largest IT weight, driving IT positive. | Health Care +1 San Francisco, Atlanta Biotech utilization remained high; health-care equipment orders increasing. Why it matters: Two positive readings in sizable districts lift Health Care. | Financials +1 Boston, New York Life insurance sales up over 50 percent; delinquencies falling on consumer loans and mortgages. Why it matters: New York's heavy Financials weight turns the sector positive. |
|
Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Flat Outlook ▶ Economic activity is mixed. |
| New York Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Economy has strengthened, on balance. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Business activity on the rise. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Continued to improve, but rate of improvement slowed. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace, led by manufacturing and retail. |
| Atlanta Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Conditions in most sectors continued to improve. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Activity appeared to improve; reports remained mixed. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Activity has picked up considerably. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Overall activity grew modestly. |
| Kansas City Flat Outlook ▲ Still somewhat weak but distinct signs of improvement. |
| Dallas Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▼ Remained weak but showed signs of improving in April. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Slow but steady improvement. |
|
|
Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Real Estate — Housing strength in mid-weight districts offset by Dallas's -2 commercial collapse, so the weighted score sits below the simple average.
|
| | Industrials — Broad +1 readings across the Northeast and Midwest; western districts (Dallas, San Francisco) flat keep the weighted score modestly positive.
|
| | Communication Services & Utilities — Thin coverage; only Richmond's media pickup scored.
|
| | District validation: St. Louis 'picked up considerably' scored +1 overall; Dallas -1 on still-weak levels despite signs of improvement.
|
|
|
How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |