EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor April 2003Released April 23, 2003 |
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Conditions index −0.04 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.06 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 0/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 4/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 23, 2003, with information collected before April 15, 2003. | | ■ | Activity stayed lackluster in March and early April; Richmond saw continued modest growth, six districts called conditions mixed or soft, and five said the pace had slowed. | | ■ | Consumer spending was subdued as the Iraq war, poor weather and a late Easter weighed on March sales; retailers still expected improvement within six months. | | ■ | Nine of twelve districts reported slowing manufacturing, though more than half noted pockets of growth such as Boston tech hardware and Atlanta defense. | | ■ | Homebuilding stayed strong in every district while office vacancies rose in eight; energy-related input costs jumped but final prices held steady. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Energy
XLE
▲ Improving | +0.75 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | +0.09 |
| Financials
XLF
▲ Turning up | +0.08 |
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| Weakest prospects Information Technology
XLK
▼ Weakening | −0.25 |
| Industrials
XLI
▼ Turning down | −0.23 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | −0.21 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.75 | Favorable | +1.20 | +0.55 | ▲ +1.05 | | 2 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.09 | Neutral | +0.21 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.04 | | 3 | Financials
XLF | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.23 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.14 | | 4 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.03 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.20 | | 5 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 6 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.02 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.06 | | 7 | Real Estate
XLRE | | −0.15 | Neutral | −0.14 | −0.11 | ▶ −0.07 | | 8 | Materials
XLB | | −0.18 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.41 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.26 | | 9 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.21 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.53 | +0.05 | ▶ +0.14 | | 10 | Industrials
XLI | | −0.23 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.64 | +0.19 | ▼ −0.38 | | 11 | Information Technology
XLK | | −0.25 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.37 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.62 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | −0.25 |
Lackluster pace; five districts said activity slowed from the prior report and six called it mixed or soft. | Continued weakness with substantial layoffs in several districts; some hints of improvement in temp demand and fewer planned cuts. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.25 |
Energy-related input prices rose substantially but manufacturers held prices steady and retailers discounted heavily. | Home lending strong everywhere; consumer and commercial lending flat with slight C&I gains in four districts. | Retailers and New York and Philadelphia manufacturers expect improvement within six months, but the war's effect on confidence is uncertain. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +2 | +1 | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | −1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | +1 | −1 | · | −1 | · | · | −1 | · | · | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Energy +2 Dallas Energy industry picked up strongly; rig count climbing. Why it matters: Largest Energy weight. | Energy +1 Kansas City, San Francisco Rigs up nearly 40 percent; new extraction capacity. Why it matters: Reinforces Energy. | Industrials −1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing declined or softened in eight districts. Why it matters: Industrials negative. | Consumer Discretionary −1 broad−based Broad-based War and weather pushed sales below plan. Why it matters: Discretionary negative. | Information Technology −1 San Francisco Businesses further delayed tech upgrades. Why it matters: SF dominates IT. | Real Estate +1 Boston, Richmond Residential markets very strong; record sales. Why it matters: Real Estate lift. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▼ Lacks forward momentum. |
| New York Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Slowed further. |
| Philadelphia Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Softened. |
| Cleveland Flat Outlook ▲ Remained subdued. |
| Richmond Flat Outlook ▶ Continued to be modest. |
| Atlanta Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Remained sluggish. |
| Chicago Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▼ Few signs of improvement. |
| St. Louis Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Remained soft. |
| Minneapolis Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Decreased slightly. |
| Kansas City Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Some signs of weakening. |
| Dallas Flat Outlook ▶ Mixed. |
| San Francisco Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▶ Sluggish. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Energy — Dallas +2 with its very large Energy weight drives the national Energy score well above the simple average.
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| | Information Technology — San Francisco's -1 outweighs Boston and Philadelphia +1 because San Francisco dominates IT weight.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |