EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2013Released April 17, 2013 |
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Conditions index +0.37 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.28 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 12/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 5/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 17, 2013, with information collected on or before April 5, 2013. | | ■ | Activity expanded at a moderate pace; five districts moderate, five modest, and New York and Dallas accelerated slightly. | | ■ | Manufacturing held steady or increased in most districts with housing and auto strength, while defense-related sectors weakened; consumer spending grew modestly. | | ■ | Residential and commercial real estate improved markedly with rising home prices, loan demand steady to up, oil and gas robust, coal declined, and outlooks optimistic. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Real Estate
XLRE
▲ Improving | +0.70 |
| | Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | +0.33 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.10 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | −0.08 |
| Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | +0.01 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.70 | Favorable | +1.31 | +0.58 | ▲ +0.32 | | 2 | Energy
XLE | | +0.49 | Leaning Favorable | +0.62 | +0.82 | ▶ −0.12 | | 3 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.33 | Leaning Favorable | +0.54 | +0.46 | ▶ −0.10 | | 4 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.32 | Leaning Favorable | +0.36 | +0.58 | ▼ −0.07 | | 5 | Financials
XLF | | +0.32 | Leaning Favorable | +0.63 | +0.47 | ▶ +0.03 | | 6 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.26 | Leaning Favorable | +0.43 | +0.24 | ▶ +0.04 | | 7 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.19 | Leaning Favorable | +0.40 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.20 | | 8 | Materials
XLB | | +0.15 | Neutral | +0.16 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.11 | | 9 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 10 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.08 | Neutral | −0.13 | −0.10 | ▶ −0.07 | | 11 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.10 | Neutral | −0.22 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.18 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.75 |
Moderate growth overall; New York and Dallas accelerated slightly. | Employment unchanged or improved somewhat; hiring in manufacturing, construction, IT. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Price pressures mostly subdued aside from home prices and construction materials. | Loan demand steady to slightly up; credit quality improved; pricing competitive. | Outlooks optimistic across sectors and districts. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | −1 | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | IndustrialsXLI | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | −1 | +1 | · | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | −1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | +1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Real Estate +2 New York, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas Residential real estate showed especially strong improvement; prices rising rapidly. Why it matters: Four strong reads drive Real Estate. | Real Estate +1 broad−based Broad-based Residential and commercial real estate improved markedly. Why it matters: Breadth lifts Real Estate. | Financials +1 New York Widespread increases in loan demand; narrowing spreads. Why it matters: New York holds 28% of Financials weight. | Industrials +1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing held steady or increased in most districts. Why it matters: Industrials positive. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco, Kansas City Solid growth in IT services. Why it matters: SF carries 47% of IT weight. | Consumer Discretionary +1 New York Retail and auto sales fairly strong; tourism robust. Why it matters: NY weight lifts Discretionary. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Continues to expand modestly. |
| New York Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth picked up somewhat. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Maintained modest growth. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a moderate pace. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Grew moderately. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Advanced at a modest pace. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a moderate pace. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded moderately with stronger expectations. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Slightly faster pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Real Estate — Four +2 reads including New York lift the weighted score above the unweighted average.
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| | Information Technology — San Francisco (+1, 47% weight) dominates the weighted IT score.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |