EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor April 2014Released April 16, 2014 |
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Conditions index +0.52 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.34 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 10/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 9/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 16, 2014, with information collected before April 7, 2014. | | ■ | Activity increased in most regions; New York and Philadelphia rebounded from weather slowdowns and Chicago picked up, while Cleveland and St. Louis declined. | | ■ | Consumer spending and auto sales rose as weather improved; manufacturing improved in most districts; transportation strengthened. | | ■ | Loan demand strengthened, commercial construction rose, oil and gas production increased while coal declined; prices stable or slightly higher. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Energy
XLE
▲ Turning up | +0.72 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▲ Turning up | +0.63 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▲ Turning up | +0.57 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.13 |
| Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | +0.03 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | +0.05 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.72 | Favorable | +1.28 | +0.78 | ▲ +0.33 | | 2 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.63 | Favorable | +0.93 | +0.59 | ▲ +0.77 | | 3 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.57 | Favorable | +0.98 | +0.54 | ▲ +0.24 | | 4 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.53 | Favorable | +0.71 | +0.73 | ▶ +0.09 | | 5 | Financials
XLF | | +0.52 | Favorable | +0.83 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.78 | | 6 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.45 | Leaning Favorable | +0.86 | +0.57 | ▲ +0.28 | | 7 | Materials
XLB | | +0.11 | Neutral | +0.09 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.08 | | 8 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.06 | Neutral | +0.10 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.04 | | 9 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.05 | Neutral | +0.08 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.07 | | 10 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.03 | Neutral | +0.11 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.06 | | 11 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.13 | Neutral | −0.21 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.32 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Increases in most regions; NY and Philly rebounded; Cleveland and St. Louis declined. | Labor market conditions mixed but generally positive. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Prices generally stable or slightly higher; construction inputs up. | Loan demand strengthened; credit quality improved. | Contacts optimistic; manufacturers expect continued growth. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | +1 | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | +2 | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | −1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +1 | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +2 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Consumer Discretionary +2 New York Sales rebounded strongly; new vehicle sales up double digits. Why it matters: NY weight lifts Discretionary. | Energy +2 Dallas Oilfield services robust; drilling increased. Why it matters: Dallas carries large Energy weight. | Real Estate +2 Dallas Housing strong; office development high. Why it matters: Strong RE read. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco IPO pace continued to pick up; healthy tech demand. Why it matters: SF carries 47% of IT weight. | Financials +1 broad−based Broad-based Loan demand strengthened; credit quality improved. Why it matters: Financials positive in nine districts. | Industrials +1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing improved in most districts. Why it matters: Industrials positive. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Continues to expand moderately. |
| New York Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Rebounded. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew at a moderate pace. |
| Cleveland Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Declined slightly. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded moderately. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth picked up. |
| St. Louis Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Declined slightly. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderate pace. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderate pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Improved moderately. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Consumer Discretionary — New York (+2) lifts the weighted score above the unweighted average.
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| | Energy — Dallas (+2) dominates the weighted Energy score.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |