EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2015Released April 15, 2015 |
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Conditions index +0.12 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.20 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 10/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 3/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 15, 2015, with information collected on or before April 3, 2015. | | ■ | The economy expanded across most regions; moderate in five districts, modest in New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis, slight in Cleveland, steady in Atlanta and Kansas City. | | ■ | Manufacturing demand was mixed amid the strong dollar, lower oil prices and harsh weather; business services rose, especially high tech; retail sales higher in most districts. | | ■ | Residential real estate steady to improving, commercial stable to stronger; oil and gas drilling investment declined with layoffs; modest upward pressure on wages and prices. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Information Technology
XLK
▲ Turning up | +0.60 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▶ Steady | +0.43 |
| Financials
XLF
▼ Turning down | +0.37 |
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| Weakest prospects | Materials
XLB
▶ Steady | −0.26 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ Turning down | −0.08 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.60 | Favorable | +0.84 | +0.73 | ▲ +0.26 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.43 | Leaning Favorable | +0.65 | +0.58 | ▶ −0.01 | | 3 | Financials
XLF | | +0.37 | Leaning Favorable | +0.84 | +0.50 | ▼ +0.06 | | 4 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.26 | Leaning Favorable | +0.35 | +0.70 | ▼ −0.52 | | 5 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.11 | Neutral | +0.32 | +0.37 | ▶ −0.40 | | 6 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.06 | Neutral | +0.05 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.10 | | 7 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.03 | Neutral | +0.15 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.08 | | 8 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.06 | Neutral | −0.04 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.25 | | 9 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.08 | Neutral | −0.11 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.22 | | 10 | Materials
XLB | | −0.26 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.48 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.35 | | 11 | Energy
XLE | | −0.70 | Unfavorable | −1.28 | −0.64 | ▶ −0.12 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Expansion across most regions; Atlanta and Kansas City steady. | Labor markets stable or improving modestly; energy layoffs. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.25 |
Modest upward pressure on wages and overall prices. | Banking stable; some improvement in loan demand. | Contacts optimistic about travel and home sales; manufacturing optimism waned in some districts. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | −1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | −1 | · | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | −1 | −2 | −2 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | −1 | −1 | · | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | +1 | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Energy −2 Dallas, Kansas City Rig count and oilfield services declined; additional layoffs. Why it matters: Largest Energy weights deeply negative. | Energy −1 Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Boston Drilling curtailed; energy conditions declined. Why it matters: Broadens Energy weakness. | Materials −1 Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Kansas City Steel and metals weakness; iron ore idled. Why it matters: Materials negative. | Industrials −1 New York, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City Manufacturing weakened. Why it matters: Industrials offsets. | Industrials +1 Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco, Boston Manufacturing increased; aerospace gains. Why it matters: Partial Industrials support. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco, Richmond, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas Pickup in demand for high-tech services such as cyber security. Why it matters: IT positive with SF weight. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Continues to expand. |
| New York Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Slowed to a modest pace. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grow at a modest pace. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.2 Outlook ▶ Expanded at a slight pace. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew at a moderately faster pace. |
| Atlanta Flat Outlook ▲ Improve at a steady pace. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth remained moderate. |
| St. Louis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Increased at a modest pace. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Kansas City Flat Outlook ▲ Little changed. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew at a moderate pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Improve moderately. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Energy — Dallas and Kansas City (-2) keep weighted Energy deeply negative.
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| | Industrials — New York (-1) carries a large weight, pulling Industrials below the unweighted average.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |