EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2019Released April 17, 2019 |
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Conditions index +0.28 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.20 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 12/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 7/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 17, 2019, with information collected on or before April 8, 2019. | | ■ | Activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace; most districts held a similar pace while a few strengthened. | | ■ | Consumer spending was mixed with sluggish general retail and auto sales, while tourism was more upbeat; manufacturing favorable but trade uncertainty widespread. | | ■ | Most districts reported stronger home sales; loan demand mixed but growing steadily; labor tight with moderate wage growth; prices up modestly. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Energy
XLE
▲ Improving | +0.61 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▲ Turning up | +0.55 |
| Financials
XLF
▲ Improving | +0.52 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.00 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | +0.01 |
| Communication Services
XLC
▶ Steady | +0.02 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.61 | Favorable | +0.57 | +0.55 | ▲ +0.95 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.55 | Favorable | +0.72 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.61 | | 3 | Financials
XLF | | +0.52 | Favorable | +0.59 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.90 | | 4 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.26 | Leaning Favorable | +0.68 | +0.12 | ▶ +0.38 | | 5 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.18 | Leaning Favorable | +0.07 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.23 | | 6 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.09 | Neutral | +0.22 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.07 | | 7 | Materials
XLB | | +0.09 | Neutral | +0.05 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 8 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.07 | Neutral | +0.13 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.13 | | 9 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.02 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.03 | | 10 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.03 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.01 | | 11 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Slight-to-moderate expansion; a few districts strengthened. | Employment up in all districts; labor tight; moderate wage growth. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.50 |
Prices rose modestly; tariffs, freight and wages lifted input costs. | Loan demand mixed but steady growth. | Little change in outlook; slight-to-modest growth expected. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | −1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | · | −1 | · | · | · | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | −1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Industrials +2 Minneapolis Manufacturing activity increased briskly. Why it matters: Strongest Industrials read. | Real Estate +1 San Francisco Real estate markets expanded moderately; commercial activity robust. Why it matters: SF carries large Real Estate weight. | Energy +1 Dallas Activity in the energy sector expanded. Why it matters: Dallas carries the largest Energy weight. | Industrials +1 New York, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco Manufacturing and trucking improved. Why it matters: Broad Industrials support. | Financials +1 New York Banks reported somewhat stronger loan demand. Why it matters: NY carries large Financials weight. | Consumer Discretionary −1 New York Vehicle sales weak; hotels and Broadway slipped below year-ago. Why it matters: NY weight trims Discretionary. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest to moderate growth; manufacturing slowing. |
| New York Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded slightly. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Resumed slight growth after pause. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Risen modestly. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Improved at a modest pace. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Increased slightly. |
| St. Louis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Improved slightly. |
| Minneapolis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly. |
| Kansas City Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Continued to expand slightly. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderate expansion continued. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a moderate pace. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Information Technology — San Francisco 0 on modest semiconductor softness leaves Boston software as the main positive, so weighted IT stays muted.
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| | Energy — Dallas +1 with the largest Energy weight lifts the weighted score above the unweighted average.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |