EconomyxAI · Sector Watch April 2021Released April 14, 2021 |
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Conditions index +0.66 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.53 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 12/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 9/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 14, 2021, with information collected on or before April 5, 2021. | | ■ | National economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace; New York grew strongly for the first time in the pandemic. | | ■ | Consumer spending and tourism strengthened on vaccinations and stimulus; half the districts cited robust manufacturing growth. | | ■ | Loans rose modestly to moderately; housing demand high with tight supply; input costs rose across the board. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▲ Improving | +0.98 |
| Industrials
XLI
▲ Improving | +0.75 |
| Materials
XLB
▲ Turning up | +0.63 |
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| Weakest prospects Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | +0.01 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | +0.08 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | +0.30 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.98 | Favorable | +1.39 | +1.00 | ▲ +1.43 | | 2 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.75 | Favorable | +1.29 | +1.00 | ▲ +0.38 | | 3 | Materials
XLB | | +0.63 | Favorable | +0.65 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.69 | | 4 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.61 | Favorable | +1.17 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.21 | | 5 | Financials
XLF | | +0.58 | Favorable | +0.68 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.67 | | 6 | Energy
XLE | | +0.51 | Favorable | +0.68 | +0.78 | ▶ −0.14 | | 7 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.48 | Leaning Favorable | +0.66 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.28 | | 8 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.36 | Leaning Favorable | +0.15 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.42 | | 9 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.30 | Leaning Favorable | +0.32 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.04 | | 10 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.23 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.12 | | 11 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +1.00 |
Activity accelerated to a moderate pace; New York grew strongly. | Employment growth picked up, strongest in manufacturing, construction and leisure. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +1.00 |
Prices accelerated slightly; input costs rose across the board. | Most districts saw modest to moderate loan increases. | Outlooks more optimistic, boosted by faster vaccinations. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +2 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Consumer Discretionary +2 New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas Consumer spending and tourism picked up noticeably. Why it matters: Broad, heavily weighted Discretionary surge. | Industrials +2 Richmond, Atlanta, Dallas Manufacturing robust; demand exceeded capacity. Why it matters: Strongest Industrials reads. | Industrials +1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing expanded in every district. Why it matters: Broad Industrials support. | Real Estate +2 San Francisco Residential demand and construction grew at a fast pace. Why it matters: SF carries large Real Estate weight. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco Strong demand for computers and electronics. Why it matters: SF carries 47% of IT weight. | Financials +1 broad−based Broad-based Loan volumes rose modestly to moderately. Why it matters: Financials positive. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest to moderate pace. |
| New York Growing +2.0 Outlook ▲ Grew at a strong pace for the first time in the pandemic. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Picked up to a moderate pace. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.5 Outlook ▲ Expansion accelerated. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded modestly. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Increased moderately. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderately improved. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately with signs of acceleration. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded moderately. |
| Dallas Growing +1.5 Outlook ▲ Accelerated to a solid pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a moderate pace. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Consumer Discretionary — four +2 readings including New York and Dallas lift the weighted score well above prior reports.
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| | Real Estate — San Francisco +2 with its large weight keeps the weighted score above the unweighted average.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |