EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor April 2024Released April 17, 2024 |
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Conditions index −0.05 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.05 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 10/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 4/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released April 17, 2024, with information collected on or before April 8, 2024. | | ■ | Activity expanded slightly; ten districts reported slight or modest growth and two no change. | | ■ | Consumer spending barely increased with weak discretionary spending; tourism up modestly; manufacturing declined slightly. | | ■ | Home sales strengthened in most districts; CRE leasing fell slightly; lending roughly flat; outlook cautiously optimistic. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Materials
XLB
▲ Turning up | +0.24 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▼ Turning down | +0.17 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▲ Turning up | +0.07 |
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| Weakest prospects Information Technology
XLK
▼ Turning down | −0.15 |
| Financials
XLF
▶ Steady | −0.09 |
| Health Care
XLV
▼ Turning down | −0.07 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Materials
XLB | | +0.24 | Leaning Favorable | +0.36 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.51 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.17 | Leaning Favorable | −0.16 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.12 | | 3 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.07 | Neutral | +0.14 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.06 | | 4 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.03 | Neutral | +0.13 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 5 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 6 | Energy
XLE | | +0.01 | Neutral | −0.04 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.02 | | 7 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 8 | Industrials
XLI | | −0.01 | Neutral | −0.13 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.30 | | 9 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.07 | Neutral | −0.09 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.20 | | 10 | Financials
XLF | | −0.09 | Neutral | −0.41 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.04 | | 11 | Information Technology
XLK | | −0.15 | Neutral | −0.40 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.21 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Ten of twelve districts reported slight or modest growth. | Employment rose at a slight pace; labor supply and applicant quality improved. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.50 |
Price increases modest; insurance rates up sharply; pass-through weakening. | Bank lending roughly flat overall. | Outlook cautiously optimistic on balance. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | −1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | · | · | +1 | −1 | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | · | −1 | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Real Estate +1 Boston, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas Home sales increased; residential activity improved. Why it matters: Lifts Real Estate. | Real Estate −1 New York, San Francisco CRE deteriorated noticeably. Why it matters: Partial offset. | Consumer Discretionary +1 Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City Tourism robust; auto sales picked up. Why it matters: Supports Discretionary. | Consumer Discretionary −1 Dallas Retail sales declined slightly. Why it matters: Partial offset. | Industrials −1 New York, Richmond, Minneapolis, Dallas Manufacturing declined. Why it matters: Industrials drag. | Industrials +1 Atlanta, Cleveland Manufacturing grew; freight increased. Why it matters: Partial offset. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a modest pace. |
| New York Flat Outlook ▶ Remained flat. |
| Philadelphia Flat Outlook ▲ Flat. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Increased modestly. |
| Richmond Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Grew at slight pace. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Increased slightly. |
| St. Louis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Increased slightly. |
| Minneapolis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew slightly. |
| Kansas City Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Expanded modestly. |
| Dallas Growing +0.5 Outlook ▼ Expanded modestly. |
| San Francisco Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Grew at a slight pace. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Real Estate — five +1 housing reads lift Real Estate to its best reading since 2021.
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| | Financials — mixed -1 and +1 reads net Financials near neutral as lending stabilizes.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |