EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor January 2021Released January 13, 2021 |
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Conditions index +0.33 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.29 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 8/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 5/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released January 13, 2021, with information collected on or before January 6, 2021. | | ■ | Most districts reported modest growth; two were flat and two (New York, Philadelphia) declined as the virus surged. | | ■ | Consumer spending was mixed with a shift online; autos softened; energy expanded for the first time since the pandemic began. | | ■ | Manufacturing kept recovering despite supply chain strains; residential real estate strong, commercial weak; vaccine hopes lifted outlooks. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Energy
XLE
▲ Improving | +0.77 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▶ Steady | +0.48 |
| Information Technology
XLK
▲ Turning up | +0.41 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▼ Weakening | −0.06 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.01 |
| Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | −0.00 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.77 | Favorable | +0.98 | +0.72 | ▲ +1.00 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.48 | Leaning Favorable | +0.87 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.17 | | 3 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.41 | Leaning Favorable | +0.58 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.17 | | 4 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.31 | Leaning Favorable | +0.84 | +0.50 | ▶ −0.18 | | 5 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.29 | Leaning Favorable | +0.24 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.14 | | 6 | Financials
XLF | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.22 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.02 | | 7 | Materials
XLB | | +0.02 | Neutral | +0.07 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.35 | | 8 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.01 | | 9 | Utilities
XLU | | −0.00 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 10 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 11 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.06 | Neutral | −0.22 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.68 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.25 |
Most districts grew modestly; two flat and two declined as the virus surged. | Employment rose slowly; more districts reported declines. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.50 |
Prices rose modestly; steel, building materials and shipping costs up. | Loan volumes flat overall; business loans fell in some districts. | Vaccine hopes lifted outlooks, tempered by the virus surge. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | +1 | −1 | · | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | −1 | · | · | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | +2 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | +1 | +2 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +2 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | +2 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Energy +2 Dallas Energy strengthened for the first time since COVID; rigs rose markedly. Why it matters: Dallas carries the largest Energy weight. | Industrials +2 Dallas Manufacturing strong, led by petrochemicals and plastics. Why it matters: Large Industrials weight. | Real Estate +2 Dallas Housing vigorous. Why it matters: Large Real Estate weight. | Real Estate +2 Boston Home buying in a frenzy. Why it matters: Strong residential read. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco Activity grew modestly with strong lending and demand. Why it matters: SF carries 47% of IT weight. | Consumer Discretionary −1 New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City Holiday sales, autos and tourism softened. Why it matters: Broad Discretionary weakness. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth continued; home buying in a frenzy. |
| New York Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▲ Activity weakened moderately. |
| Philadelphia Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▲ Activity fell modestly. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Slight growth. |
| Richmond Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest growth; manufacturing up. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest growth; housing strong. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest growth; heavy trucks strong. |
| St. Louis Flat Outlook ▲ Activity unchanged. |
| Minneapolis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest growth; record mortgages. |
| Kansas City Flat Outlook ▲ Activity steady. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderate growth; energy strengthened. |
| San Francisco Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Modest growth; holiday retail picked up. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Energy — Dallas +2 with the largest Energy weight lifts the weighted score well above the unweighted average.
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| | Information Technology — San Francisco +1 at 47% weight keeps the weighted IT score positive.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |