EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor January 2022Released January 12, 2022 |
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Conditions index +0.27 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.29 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 11/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 0/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released January 12, 2022, with information collected on or before January 3, 2022. | | ■ | Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the final weeks of 2021, constrained by supply disruptions and labor shortages. | | ■ | Consumer spending steady ahead of Omicron, then leisure travel, hotels and restaurants pulled back; manufacturing kept expanding. | | ■ | Lending picked up slightly, led by commercial real estate; wage growth robust; price increases decelerated a bit from a robust pace. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects | Real Estate
XLRE
▼ Turning down | +0.31 |
| Industrials
XLI
▼ Weakening | +0.23 |
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| Weakest prospects Communication Services
XLC
▶ Steady | −0.06 |
| Materials
XLB
▼ Turning down | −0.03 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▼ Turning down | +0.01 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.64 | Favorable | +0.63 | +1.23 | ▶ −0.18 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.31 | Leaning Favorable | +0.65 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.34 | | 3 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.23 | Leaning Favorable | +0.78 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.55 | | 4 | Financials
XLF | | +0.19 | Leaning Favorable | +0.22 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.38 | | 5 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.18 | Leaning Favorable | +0.09 | +0.50 | ▼ −0.25 | | 6 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.04 | Neutral | +0.13 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 7 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.11 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.06 | | 8 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.06 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.04 | | 9 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.41 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.30 | | 10 | Materials
XLB | | −0.03 | Neutral | +0.06 | +0.00 | ▼ −0.39 | | 11 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.06 | Neutral | −0.15 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.15 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Activity expanded at a modest pace; Omicron pulled back leisure and hospitality. | Employment grew modestly; demand strong but constrained by shortages; robust wage growth. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +1.25 |
Solid price growth, decelerating a bit from a robust pace. | Lending picked up slightly, led by commercial real estate. | Optimism high but growth expectations cooled somewhat. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Health CareXLV | −1 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | · | +1 | +1 | −1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | +2 | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | −1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | · | +1 | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Financials +2 Dallas Loan volumes increased across lending types. Why it matters: Strongest Financials read. | Industrials +2 Minneapolis Manufacturing activity increased briskly. Why it matters: Strongest Industrials read. | Industrials +1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing continued to expand nationally. Why it matters: Broad Industrials support. | Energy +1 Dallas Notable increase in rig count. Why it matters: Dallas carries the largest Energy weight. | Consumer Discretionary −1 New York Omicron dampened tourism and services. Why it matters: NY carries large Discretionary weight. | Real Estate +1 San Francisco Residential construction and sales remained strong. Why it matters: SF carries large Real Estate weight. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Steady or up slightly; mixed. |
| New York Flat Outlook ▲ Grew at a subdued pace. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly, slower than before. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a relatively steady pace. |
| Richmond Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly. |
| Atlanta Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a moderate pace. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Increased modestly. |
| St. Louis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Improved at a moderate rate. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Saw moderate growth. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Finished 2021 at a moderate pace. |
| Dallas Growing +1.5 Outlook ▲ Expanded at a robust pace. |
| San Francisco Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Strengthened modestly. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Financials — Dallas +2 with Philadelphia and Cleveland +1 lift the weighted score above the unweighted average.
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| | Consumer Discretionary — New York -1 and SF 0 offset broad +1 reads, holding the weighted score near neutral.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |