EconomyxAI · Sector Watch July 2000Released August 9, 2000 · Data through July 31 |
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Conditions index +0.25 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index −0.07 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 11/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 4/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | All districts still expanded, but seven reported slower growth while St. Louis accelerated. | | ■ | Consumer spending softened slightly, with retail below plan in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas and New York and vehicle sales slowing in seven districts; tourism stayed strong. | | ■ | Manufacturing slowed in Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas and Richmond while semiconductors and high-tech products stayed in high demand. | | ■ | Nine districts reported slower residential construction, but commercial building stayed brisk in six; real estate lending slowed. | | ■ | Energy expanded in Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City and Minneapolis as oil-directed drilling began to pick up, while energy prices may have peaked and steel and lumber prices fell. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects | Information Technology
XLK
▶ Steady | +0.41 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | +0.31 |
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| Weakest prospects Materials
XLB
▼ Weakening | −0.36 |
| Financials
XLF
▶ Steady | −0.21 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | −0.14 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.67 | Favorable | +1.06 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.24 | | 2 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.41 | Leaning Favorable | +0.66 | n/a | ▶ −0.13 | | 3 | Health Care
XLV | | +0.31 | Leaning Favorable | +0.29 | n/a | ▶ +0.10 | | 4 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.23 | Leaning Favorable | +0.40 | n/a | ▶ +0.00 | | 5 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.18 | Leaning Favorable | +0.36 | n/a | ▲ +0.39 | | 6 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.10 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.04 | | 7 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.02 | Neutral | +0.07 | +0.03 | ▼ −0.42 | | 8 | Industrials
XLI | | −0.12 | Neutral | +0.15 | −0.17 | ▼ −0.52 | | 9 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.14 | Neutral | +0.06 | +0.23 | ▶ −0.55 | | 10 | Financials
XLF | | −0.21 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.20 | −0.50 | ▶ −0.34 | | 11 | Materials
XLB | | −0.36 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.15 | −0.50 | ▼ −0.65 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.75 |
All districts expanded, but seven slowed; Cleveland, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Philadelphia were unchanged and St. Louis accelerated. | Labor markets stayed very tight nearly everywhere, with Kansas City even tighter, though Chicago and Minneapolis saw slight easing and wage pressures were generally steady. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.25 |
Energy prices may have peaked and steel, lumber and aluminum prices fell, but fuel pushed up shipping and packaging costs and health care costs rose at double-digit rates. | Loan demand mostly solid in Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas, but fears of slower growth cut demand in Richmond, New York was weak and San Francisco tightened credit availability; real estate lending slowed. | Atlanta's outlook upbeat and Philadelphia expects a modest pickup, but Boston expects a second-half slowdown and Kansas City expects slower vehicle sales and flat housing. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | | Health CareXLV | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | FinancialsXLF | · | −1 | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | −1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | · | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | +1 | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | +2 | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | · | +1 | · | · | −1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | · | · | · | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | −1 | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Energy +2 Dallas Drilling 'continues to grow rapidly and faster than generally expected'; rig count 950. Why it matters: Dallas carries the largest Energy weight; a second +2 keeps Energy at the top. | Financials −1 New York Loan demand weak and standards tightening. Why it matters: New York is about 28% of Financials, so its -1 drives the weighted score negative. | Financials −1 San Francisco A tightening of credit availability throughout the District. Why it matters: Adds a second heavy-weight negative to Financials. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco Semiconductor makers described strong demand and high capacity use. Why it matters: San Francisco is about 47% of IT; another +1 keeps IT favorable. | Energy +1 Kansas City, Minneapolis Rig count close to a five-year high; North Dakota oil extraction sales +45%. Why it matters: Breadth behind Dallas's +2. | Consumer Discretionary 0 broad−based Nine districts Retail sales below plan; vehicle sales slowed in seven districts. Why it matters: Broad flattening pulls Discretionary near neutral. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▼ Growth slowing somewhat. |
| New York Growing +1.0 Growth moderated. |
| Philadelphia Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Activity mostly steady. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Moderately strong. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Moderated but remained high. |
| Atlanta Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Eased slightly; outlook upbeat. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Slowing but still strong. |
| St. Louis Growing +2.0 Strong and accelerated somewhat. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Economic activity is steady. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Grew at a steady pace. |
| Dallas Flat Signs of cooling. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Continued solid expansion. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Energy — Dallas +2 for a second straight release with Kansas City and Minneapolis +1; Energy leads on both weighted and unweighted measures.
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| | Consumer Discretionary — nine 0s and only two +1s; the sector that led in January is now near neutral.
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| | Financials — New York and San Francisco both -1, so the weighted score falls well below the unweighted average.
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| | Industrials — split, four +1s against Chicago and Dallas at -1.
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| | Utilities — price increases only; no directional demand coverage.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |