EconomyxAI · Sector Watch November 2011Released November 30, 2011 |
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Conditions index +0.21 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.13 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 11/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 6/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released November 30, 2011, with information collected on or before November 18, 2011. | | ■ | Activity grew at a slow to moderate pace in all districts except St. Louis, which reported a decline. | | ■ | Consumer spending rose modestly with strong autos and tourism; manufacturing increased everywhere except St. Louis. | | ■ | Lending rose slightly with growing refinancing, residential real estate stayed sluggish, energy and mining increased, and prices were subdued. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects | Information Technology
XLK
▲ Improving | +0.42 |
| Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | +0.37 |
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| Weakest prospects Financials
XLF
▶ Steady | −0.12 |
| Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | −0.04 |
| Materials
XLB
▶ Steady | −0.01 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Energy
XLE | | +0.62 | Favorable | +1.00 | +0.81 | ▶ +0.12 | | 2 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.42 | Leaning Favorable | +0.56 | +0.30 | ▲ +0.61 | | 3 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.37 | Leaning Favorable | +0.59 | +0.42 | ▶ +0.28 | | 4 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.14 | Neutral | +0.25 | +0.06 | ▶ −0.07 | | 5 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.10 | Neutral | +0.11 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.24 | | 6 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 7 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | +0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.04 | | 8 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.00 | Neutral | −0.02 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.01 | | 9 | Materials
XLB | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.13 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.27 | | 10 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.04 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.22 | | 11 | Financials
XLF | | −0.12 | Neutral | −0.28 | −0.14 | ▶ +0.14 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Growth at a slow to moderate pace in all districts but St. Louis. | Hiring subdued; labor markets little changed with some layoffs in finance. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.00 |
Price pressures subdued; input costs eased. | Lending rose slightly; refinancing increased; credit quality improved. | Outlooks mixed; some improvement in Philadelphia, caution elsewhere. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | −1 | · | +1 | · | −1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | −1 | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | · | +1 | +1 | · | +1 | · | · | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Energy +2 Minneapolis, Kansas City Energy and mining activity strong and expanding. Why it matters: Two strong reads plus Dallas +1 lift Energy. | Consumer Discretionary +1 broad−based Broad-based Auto sales strong; tourism and holiday outlook positive. Why it matters: Breadth across ten districts lifts Discretionary. | Financials −1 New York Financial firms announced layoffs. Why it matters: New York holds 28% of Financials weight. | Information Technology +1 San Francisco, Boston Tech services and software revenue growing. Why it matters: High-weight districts lift IT. | Industrials +1 Broad-based Manufacturing increased in all districts except St. Louis. Why it matters: Industrials positive on breadth. | Real Estate −1 San Francisco Real estate activity remained weak. Why it matters: SF weight restrains Real Estate. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Optimistic software and retail contacts. |
| New York Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Finance layoffs; tourism strong. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Outlook improved substantially. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Autos very good. |
| Richmond Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Retail rebounded. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Retail weaker; autos up. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Growth moderated. |
| St. Louis Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▼ Activity slowed. |
| Minneapolis Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Grew moderately. |
| Kansas City Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Spending strengthened. |
| Dallas Growing +0.5 Outlook ▶ Expanded modestly. |
| San Francisco Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Grew moderately. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Financials — New York (-1, 28% weight) pulls the weighted score below the unweighted average.
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| | Real Estate — San Francisco (-1) offsets broad residential gains in smaller districts.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |