EconomyxAI · Sector Watch November 2024Released December 4, 2024 |
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Conditions index +0.13 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index +0.18 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 10/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 8/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Released December 4, 2024, with information collected on or before November 22, 2024. | | ■ | Economic activity rose slightly in most districts; three districts were flat or slightly down. | | ■ | Consumer spending generally stable with greater price sensitivity; manufacturing mostly down; electricity demand from data centers strong. | | ■ | Expectations for growth rose moderately; tariffs cited as an upside inflation risk; residential real estate mixed to up. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Information Technology
XLK
▲ Turning up | +0.46 |
| Real Estate
XLRE
▲ Improving | +0.40 |
| Utilities
XLU
▲ Turning up | +0.38 |
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| Weakest prospects Health Care
XLV
▶ Steady | −0.01 |
| Consumer Staples
XLP
▶ Steady | −0.01 |
| Communication Services
XLC
▶ Steady | +0.02 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Information Technology
XLK | | +0.46 | Leaning Favorable | +0.47 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.47 | | 2 | Real Estate
XLRE | | +0.40 | Leaning Favorable | +0.25 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.50 | | 3 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.38 | Leaning Favorable | +0.33 | +0.50 | ▲ +0.33 | | 4 | Financials
XLF | | +0.29 | Leaning Favorable | +0.15 | +0.50 | ▼ +0.10 | | 5 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | +0.16 | Leaning Favorable | +0.17 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.66 | | 6 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.12 | Neutral | +0.03 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.65 | | 7 | Energy
XLE | | +0.10 | Neutral | +0.16 | +0.00 | ▲ +0.12 | | 8 | Materials
XLB | | +0.06 | Neutral | −0.16 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.28 | | 9 | Communication Services
XLC | | +0.02 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 10 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ +0.00 | | 11 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.01 | Neutral | +0.00 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.06 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | +0.50 |
Activity rose slightly in most districts; three flat or slightly down. | Employment flat or up slightly; hiring cautious and for replacement. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +0.50 |
Prices rose modestly; tariffs cited as an upside risk. | Lending mixed; banking improved in some districts as rates fell. | Expectations for growth rose moderately across sectors. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | −1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | +1 | +1 | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | +1 | +1 | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | · | · | +1 | · | −1 | · | · | +1 | · | · | +1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | · | −1 | · | · | · |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Industrials −1 broad−based Broad-based Manufacturing activity was mostly down. Why it matters: Industrials negative in many districts. | Industrials +1 New York, Dallas NY manufacturing strong; Dallas manufacturing resumed growth. Why it matters: Large-weight offsets. | Utilities +1 Atlanta, Richmond, Dallas Electricity demand strong, driven by data centers. Why it matters: Utilities lifted from flat. | Real Estate +1 Minneapolis, Boston, San Francisco Residential activity widely higher; home sales up. Why it matters: Real Estate positive tilt. | Real Estate −1 Atlanta Housing deteriorated. Why it matters: Partial offset. | Financials +1 St. Louis, San Francisco, Kansas City Banking conditions improved. Why it matters: Financials positive. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Contracting −0.5 Outlook ▲ Down a bit. |
| New York Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Up slightly, led by manufacturing. |
| Philadelphia Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Edged up. |
| Cleveland Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly. |
| Richmond Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew slightly. |
| Atlanta Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew. |
| Chicago Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Up slightly. |
| St. Louis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Up slightly. |
| Minneapolis Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Up slightly. |
| Kansas City Growing +0.5 Outlook ▲ Grew modestly. |
| Dallas Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Moderate growth. |
| San Francisco Flat Outlook ▲ Stable. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Industrials — high-weight New York and Dallas positives offset broad -1 manufacturing reads, so the weighted score sits above the simple average.
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| | Utilities — thin coverage elsewhere; three +1 reads tied to data center demand lift the score from zero.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |