EconomyxAI · Beige Book Sector Monitor November 2025Released November 26, 2025 · Data through November 17 |
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Conditions index −0.09 avg of 11 sectors, −2 to +2 |
| Outlook index −0.02 sectors with an outlook |
| Districts growing 4/12 per National Summary |
| Positive momentum 3/11 sectors improving |
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This release in brief The read | ■ | Activity was little changed in most districts, with New York and Philadelphia declining modestly and Richmond growing modestly. | | ■ | Consumer spending declined further as lower- and middle-income households cut back; higher-end retail stayed resilient, EV sales fell after the tax credit expired and the government shutdown hit some retailers. | | ■ | Employment declined slightly, with about half of districts reporting weaker labor demand; firms relied on hiring freezes and attrition, and a few said AI replaced entry-level roles. | | ■ | Prices rose moderately with widespread tariff-driven input costs in manufacturing and retail; multiple reports of margin compression, while some building material prices fell. | | ■ | Manufacturing increased somewhat in most districts and manufacturers stayed optimistic; outlooks were otherwise largely unchanged, with some contacts flagging a higher risk of slower activity. |
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Sector prospects Where the 3–12 month view points Strongest prospects Industrials
XLI
▲ Turning up | +0.10 |
| Utilities
XLU
▶ Steady | +0.08 |
| Financials
XLF
▲ Turning up | −0.07 |
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| Weakest prospects Consumer Discretionary
XLY
▶ Steady | −0.49 |
| | Materials
XLB
▶ Steady | −0.24 |
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All 11 GICS sectors, ranked Sector scoreboard | # | Sector | −1 0 +1 | Score | Signal | Now | Outlook | Mom. |
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| 1 | Industrials
XLI | | +0.10 | Neutral | +0.30 | +0.30 | ▲ +0.26 | | 2 | Utilities
XLU | | +0.08 | Neutral | +0.13 | +0.50 | ▶ +0.07 | | 3 | Financials
XLF | | −0.07 | Neutral | +0.10 | +0.22 | ▲ −0.01 | | 4 | Consumer Staples
XLP | | −0.07 | Neutral | −0.04 | −0.50 | ▶ +0.12 | | 5 | Health Care
XLV | | −0.09 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▶ +0.00 | | 6 | Communication Services
XLC | | −0.11 | Neutral | −0.15 | n/a | ▶ −0.04 | | 7 | Information Technology
XLK | | −0.14 | Neutral | +0.00 | n/a | ▼ −0.30 | | 8 | Real Estate
XLRE | | −0.22 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.32 | +0.00 | ▶ −0.10 | | 9 | Materials
XLB | | −0.24 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.36 | +0.50 | ▶ −0.10 | | 10 | Energy
XLE | | −0.33 | Leaning Unfavorable | +0.02 | −0.85 | ▶ −0.04 | | 11 | Consumer Discretionary
XLY | | −0.49 | Leaning Unfavorable | −0.66 | −0.36 | ▶ −0.28 |
Prospect Score blends current conditions, district outlooks, momentum, a sector-specific macro tilt and margins. Now = weighted current conditions; Outlook = n/a when too few districts gave one; Mom. = change vs the average of the two prior releases. |
National Summary, scored −2 to +2 Macro backdrop | Overall Economic Activity | | −0.25 |
Little changed in most districts, but two (New York, Philadelphia) declined modestly against one (Richmond) growing modestly, and consumer spending declined further; a slightly weaker mix than October. | Employment declined slightly and about half of districts noted weaker labor demand; layoff announcements rose, and firms used freezes, replacement-only hiring, attrition and reduced hours; AI replacing some entry-level roles. | | Inflation Pressure (higher = headwind) | | +1.25 |
Prices rose moderately with widespread tariff-driven input costs and rising insurance, utilities and health costs; offset slightly by easing in Boston and New York and falling prices for some building materials. | Lower rates lifted Cleveland loan demand moderately, Chicago financial conditions loosened modestly and San Francisco lending strengthened marginally; offset by Dallas loan volume falling, Philadelphia C&I declines and tighter standards in St. Louis and Atlanta. | Largely unchanged overall: manufacturers optimistic (Boston, Philadelphia, Kansas City), but Dallas outlooks worsened, St. Louis deteriorated to pessimistic, Chicago expects a slight decline and Kansas City consumer outlook slipped. |
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Current conditions in each Fed district District by sector | BOS | NY | PHL | CLE | RIC | ATL | CHI | STL | MIN | KC | DAL | SF |
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| Information TechnologyXLK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Health CareXLV | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | FinancialsXLF | · | · | −1 | +1 | · | −1 | +1 | · | · | · | −1 | +1 | | Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | · | −1 | −1 | · | +1 | −1 | +1 | −1 | −1 | −2 | −1 | −1 | | Communication ServicesXLC | · | −1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | | IndustrialsXLI | +1 | +1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | · | +1 | · | +1 | +1 | +1 | · | | Consumer StaplesXLP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | −1 | · | | EnergyXLE | · | · | · | · | · | +2 | · | · | · | −1 | · | · | | UtilitiesXLU | · | · | · | · | · | +1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | | Real EstateXLRE | +1 | · | −1 | · | · | · | +1 | · | +1 | −1 | −1 | −1 | | MaterialsXLB | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −1 | −1 |
| Contraction | −2 | −1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | Expansion |
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Top highlights What moved the scores Information Technology 0 (from +1) San Francisco Layoffs occurred in technology; manufacturing mixed, with automated packaging equipment demand up. Why it matters: San Francisco carries 47% of IT weight; reverting to 0 removes about 0.47 from IT conditions. | Consumer Discretionary −2 Kansas City Consumer spending declined moderately; the shutdown visibly slowed foot traffic. Why it matters: The only -2 read of the release, deepening broad Discretionary weakness. | Industrials +1 broad−based Boston, New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas Manufacturing increased somewhat in most districts; New York new orders and shipments up moderately. Why it matters: Six positive districts make Industrials conditions the strongest since early 2025. | Energy +2 Atlanta Energy segments grew moderately; strong LNG, solar and wind demand tied to data centers. Why it matters: Offsets Kansas City's decline and keeps Energy conditions positive. | Consumer Discretionary −1 Philadelphia, New York, St. Louis, Dallas, San Francisco Lower- and now middle-income households pulled back; EV sales fell after the credit expired. Why it matters: Large-weight districts keep Discretionary at or near the bottom of the ranking. | Financials −1 Dallas, Philadelphia Dallas loan volume and demand fell after several months of growth; Philadelphia C&I loans declined sharply. Why it matters: Turns two prior positives or flats negative and balances Cleveland and Chicago gains. |
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Twelve Fed districts District roundup Boston Growing +1.0 Outlook ▲ Expanded slightly on strong home sales; cautiously optimistic. |
| New York Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▶ Declined modestly; little improvement expected. |
| Philadelphia Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▶ Modest declines across most sectors amid the shutdown. |
| Cleveland Growing +1.0 Outlook ▶ Increased slightly; flat activity expected ahead. |
| Richmond Growing +1.0 Continued to grow modestly; consumer spending up. |
| Atlanta Flat Little changed; energy demand grew moderately. |
| Chicago Growing +1.0 Outlook ▼ Rose slightly; slight decline expected over the next year. |
| St. Louis Flat Outlook ▼ Unchanged; outlook deteriorated to pessimistic. |
| Minneapolis Flat Flat; manufacturing and home sales up, consumers down. |
| Kansas City Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▲ Growth slowed slightly; consumer activity cooling. |
| Dallas Contracting −1.0 Outlook ▼ Weakened slightly; outlooks generally worsened. |
| San Francisco Flat Outlook ▶ Mixed; outlook little changed. |
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Where the signal is thin or split Divergences to watch | Information Technology — San Francisco returned to 0 after October's +1, so weighted IT conditions fall back to near zero; this single 47%-weight call drives most of the IT swing.
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| | Industrials — manufacturing improved in six districts, the broadest positive read of the year, while Philadelphia reversed from +2 to -1.
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| | Consumer Discretionary — Kansas City -2 and seven other negatives; only Richmond and Chicago positive as the shutdown and SNAP disruption weighed on spending.
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| | Energy — Atlanta +2 on data-center-driven demand versus a Kansas City decline and a flat Dallas (45% weight) with a negative 2026 outlook.
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| | Financials — evenly split, three positive and three negative districts, as lower rates help demand while consumer delinquencies rise.
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| | UTILITIES and COMMUNICATION SERVICES: thin coverage; Atlanta utilities +1 and New York information -1 are the only non-zero reads.
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How to read this. Each Fed district’s report is scored −2 (strong contraction) to +2 (strong expansion) for each GICS sector, then weighted by the district’s share of that sector’s activity. The Prospect Score blends current conditions (25%), district outlooks (35%), momentum (20%), a sector-specific macro tilt (10%) and margin pressure (10%). The Beige Book describes regional activity, not earnings or valuations. Weights and sensitivities are illustrative. This newsletter is for information only and is not investment advice. Source: Federal Reserve Beige Book · Scored by EconomyxAI |